Why can an empty search area still tell you something?
You look for your keys in a drawer and do not find them. That result means more if you emptied the drawer than if you only glanced inside. Bayesian search separates where an object was likely to be from how likely a particular search was to notice it.
Questions you could explore
- When should a failed search strongly reduce your confidence in a location?
- Why would the probability of an unsearched area change?
Start reading
- SIAM News; J. Van Gurley and Lawrence D. StoneBayesian Search for Missing Aircraft, Ships, and People
Explains why an unsuccessful search changes a location’s probability according to how likely the search was to detect the target.
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